From Missing Middle Housing to Gentle Density: Identifying Affordable Housing Trends Through Policy Tracking

The U.S. housing shortage has been estimated to be between 4.5 million units and 7.3 million units in 2024. Some reports consider this a conservative estimate and instead calculate the shortage to be over 20 million units. Local municipalities have tried to combat this mounting crisis by implementing affordable housing through various ordinances to introduce more “middle housing” options. However, due to a variety of socioeconomic factors, there is a persistent lack of these housing options in the current market. 

What is Missing Middle Housing?

Middle housing refers to a range of moderate-density housing types that fall between traditional single-family homes and large apartment buildings. These housing types are often referred to as "missing" because the production of these dwellings has slowed in recent years. 

Types of such housing include duplexes, triplexes, fourplexes, townhouses, cottage clusters, apartment courts, bungalow courts, accessory dwelling units, and live/work units. The purpose of these developments is to promote housing diversity, affordability, and neighborhood vitality by providing a range of options that meet the needs of a variety of households.

Reasons and Ramifications of the Lack of Housing Diversity

The focus on housing diversity stems from the prominence of low-density single-family homes in the US. Traditionally, housing in the US is centered around nuclear families and single-family property ownership. 

The origin of this exclusive approach stems from the introduction of restrictive zoning ordinances in the early 20th century. These ordinances increased housing property values by requiring large land lots and predominantly favored wealthy white individuals. Restrictive zoning became further entrenched due to a series of laws promoting low-density housing, the suburban boom following World War II, and the prosperous economic conditions enjoyed by Americans during that time. The stability, security, and prosperity associated with single-family ownership entered the American zeitgeist during this era. However, the economic and social segregation stemming from these laws grew more pronounced over time. 

Restrictive zoning laws heavily favor single-family homes and high-income residents, which prevents the creation of high-density and mixed-use zoning in low-density areas. Additionally, public infrastructure and services were developed in service of single-family houses. Along with the rising cost of building materials, these factors have contributed to the lack of developer interest in middle housing options and preference for high-value single-family housing. 

These high-value homes have created an ecosystem where property values are driven up through short-term rentals and gentrification. Short-term rentals drive up land values and subsequently rent, as well as cut down on the available stock of affordable housing options. Similarly, gentrification involves high-income residents buying houses in low-income areas, which eventually upscales the neighborhood through luxury housing, beautification, and high-end amenities. As a result, the residents of areas affected by these phenomena are subjected to rising living costs, property taxes, and rent. These factors drive away low and middle-income families and prevent potential renters and residents from moving in. 

The decreasing pool of affordable housing occurs alongside a record rise in demand for affordable housing. The millennial generation is in the age range where most are looking for ownership opportunities. Alongside them, Gen Z has just started to enter that range, while baby boomers have mostly retired and are looking to downsize to more affordable units. This has created the largest pool of potential homeowners so far. 

The imbalance between the demand and shortage is further exacerbated by high living costs, stagnant wages, and high mortgage rates. Mortgage rates are predicted to keep increasing as inflation remains high and investors look to make a return on mortgage-backed securities. Hence, the housing cost for the average homeowner pushes them out of the insular housing market and creates the need for affordable diversified housing. 

Revitalizing Neighborhoods through Gentle Density 

States and counties throughout the U.S. have implemented policies to provide affordable housing to their residents. According to Curate data, some of these ideas include changing restrictive zoning laws, controlling and stabilizing rent, implementing programs to aid property ownership, and so on. Recently, the concept of gentle density has been making the rounds in several municipalities, as a way to alleviate housing shortages by emphasizing smaller-scale, low-impact, and incremental changes to existing neighborhoods. 

What is gentle density? Gentle density is an urban planning concept that promotes increasing the density of housing in a neighborhood or community in a thoughtful, incremental, and context-sensitive manner. The idea is based on using empty spaces within populated neighborhoods by including housing units that correspond to and maintain the character and quality of the area. 

Gentle density aims to reintroduce middle housing types to communities. Curate has noted that municipalities are attempting to work around restrictive zoning by choosing and designing middle housing developments to promote infill housing developments. Curate has also identified development requirements such as minimum lot size reform, zero set-back construction, and so on, that are modified to allow these middle housing projects to be done gradually. Hence, communities can be more flexible and organic in their approach to changing housing needs and community preferences.

 Another effect of increased density is that neighborhoods become more compact. This allows better access to public transportation and services and also benefits the area's walkability. These changes require active participation from local residents and policymakers to ensure inclusive, equitable, and responsive housing solutions that retain the identity and charm of their respective communities.

The controlled growth that is required of communities to implement gentle density will have an effect on the current housing shortage. Gentle density addresses many of the issues of the current crisis. The efficient land use will allow developers to maximize the use of high-value land and lower the cost and rent of individual units. 

Additionally, the use of diverse middle housing options will cater to the diverse needs of the country’s changing demographic. The gradual increment of developments will also help developers to spread out costs, while increased density bonuses for affordable housing incentivize them to stay in the industry.

Track Gentle Density Policy With Curate

As the U.S. grapples with a housing shortage exacerbated by its shifting demographics, it is challenging to keep up with the various policies that are implemented to handle the crisis. Gentle density, in particular, is affected by a wide array of policies, which encourages additional scrutiny of state and municipal policies that could affect affordable housing. 

In the past year, Curate has identified over 6,000 conversations and policies related to middle housing and over 300 for gentle density. This is a slow but steady increase over the previous years.

Curate enables you to keep track of gentle density policy by identifying the various possible topics that could affect it. Curate data tracks topics like affordable housing, rental housing, property ownership, developmental requirements, zoning laws, and more, which allows its customers a holistic view of the trends that promote gentle density and tackle the housing crisis.