Previous Update
Updated: 29 May, 2019 through FiscalNote's EU Issue Tracker
Manfred Weber or Margrethe Vestager are rumored to be favorites to become the next Commission President as the EU leaders met to take stock of the 2019 European elections results during an informal dinner on 28 May.
Five senior positions in the EU are to be filled in 2019: Commission President, Council President, European Parliament President, European Central Bank President, and EU High Representative of the EU for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy.
This procedure for electing the Commission President is expected to see some political maneuvering: (1) between the European Parliament and European Council (2) between political parties in the European Parliament, and (3) between the Member States in the Council.
(1) European Parliament
Within the European Parliament, all political parties have either put forward one or two Spitzenkandidaten or have established a list of eligible candidates.
The following Spitzenkandidaten have been put forward by the Political Groups in the 2019 European elections:
Political Group | Spitzenkandidaten |
EPP | Manfred Weber |
S&D | Frans Timmermans |
ALDE | Margrethe Vestager, Guy Verhofstadt, Nicola Beer, Katlin Cseh, Luis Garicano, Emma Bonino, Violeta Bulc (Europe Team) |
S&D | Frans Timmermans |
Greens | Ska Keller, Bas Eickhout |
S&D | Frans Timmermans |
EFA | Oriol Junqueras |
ECR | Jan Zahradil |
GUE/NGL | Nicu Cué, Violeta Tomić |
With the EPP candidate Manfred Weber supported by the political group with the largest number of MEPs and with any candidate needing the EPP support, the EPP appears to have a commanding position.
Mr Weber has been quick to invite Member State leaders to discuss the selection of a Commission President candidate. However, as Member States did not want to pre-empt the choice of candidates, these discussions have not gone anywhere.
Mr Weber is opposed by a large number of MEPs from the other political groups. Key objections include the fact that the EPP lost a large number of MEPs with the ALDE and Greens/EFA Groups making gains.
The French LREM in line with the French Government oppose MEP Weber as a Commission President, a position that is likely to receive the backing of the ALDE Group. The ALDE Group supports their own candidate, current Competition Commissioner Margrethe Vestager.
The Greens have indicated that they could support Commissioner Verstager as a compromise candidate, as they consider her a Spitzenkandidat and as providing gender balance in the senior EU positions.
The S&D Group supports their own Spitzenkandidat, Frans Timmermans, the former Commission First Vice President, arguably the most qualified of the candidates and with the advantage of coming from the Netherlands - as nominating the Commission President from smaller Member States is usually preferred as it is less divisive.
The S&D Group have made advances to the ALDE Group, expressing support for transnational lists during the next European elections, but have also shown willingness to compromise with the EPP.
The EPP candidate further faces opposition from in his own political group, as the Hungarian Fidesz Party has announced its opposition to Manfred Weber.
(2) European Parliament and European Council
The key question is whether the Spitzenkandidat system pushed by the European Parliament in 2014 will be followed in 2019. Despite the Parliament having insisted on the system being used, it is opposed by some political groups and crucially France.
In light of the results of the election however it is unclear how the European Council is to choose the Commission President. Therefore despite some political groups having pledged not to elect a candidate that was not run as a Spitzenkandidat (a lead candidate put forward by the political groups) it is not clear if the political parties will be able to insist on the process.
The Spitzenkandidaten system would benefit Manfred Weber (EPP, Germany), the Spitzenkandidat of the largest political group who has hopes to become Commission President. While he is supported by Germany in the Council, which would like the next Commission President to be German, Mr Weber is not supported by France due to his lack of experience - he has never been a Prime Minister in an EU Member State.
During a meeting of the political parties with the European Parliament President on 28 May a statement was produced, which emphasized that a majority in the European Parliament supports the Spitzenkandidat system.
However , the Spitzenkandidat system is opposed by the centrist ALDE Group. The French President Emmanuel Macron and other Member States feel that accepting the Spitzenkandidaten system would erode Member States powers and is not supported by the Treaties. The French President has argued that the Spitzenkandidaten system should be taken into account, but not be applied automatically.
The ALDE Group, which has been joined by President Macron's party La République en marche (LREM), argues that a Spitzenkandidat system without transnational lists would create a fair result. For this reason, the ALDE Group proposed a list of ALDE politicians eligible for executive positions, without proposing a Spitzenkandidat.
(3) European Council
Both France and Germany seek to get one of the 5 senior positions, made easier in light of the UK's anticipated withdrawal from the EU.
Germany is understood to want either the EPP candidate Manfred Weber as Commission President or the position of ECB President for the German Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann.
French President Macron, meanwhile, proposed EU Chief Brexit Negotiator Michel Barnier as a non-Spitzenkandidaten candidate for the Commission Presidency. Two French candidates are running for the ECB Presidency.
This may lead to a compromise by sharing these positions. However, this is likely to generate opposition from the other Member States.
In the background brief published by Council President Tusk ahead of the informal lunch, he makes clear that the persons chosen to hold the different offices of the EU should come from diverse backgrounds.
This diversity, the Council President clarified, required geographic, demographic, political, and gender balance.
As such, Commissioner Verstager might be preferred as Commission President, as a female candidate coming from a smaller Member State.
Compromises
During the meeting of the Presidents of the political groups with the European Parliament President, the statement emphasized that a majority in the European Parliament supports the Spitzenkandidaten system.
If the European Parliament is ready to reject all non-Spitzenkandidaten, as it has threatened to do, this could delay the nomination of the Commission President and the Commission itself. EU leaders, meanwhile, will seek to propose a candidate that will not implicitly approve the Spitzenkandidaten system.
However, another dimension of the election is the political allegiance of the Commission President with several political parties wanting a change from the EPP Group.
Again Commissioner Verstager as the ALDE "Spitzenkandidat" (despite the ALDE Group not officially participating in the system) may prove to be the only compromise candidate between the European Parliament and the Council.
However, the EPP could decide to support the other proposed EPP candidate Michel Barnier who has more experience than Mr Weber. As the majority of EU leaders in the Council belong to the EPP Group they may be willing to support this.