International Trade in Transition: Preparing for Policy Shifts in Trump's Second Term

Now that the dust has settled from the outcome of the U.S. elections, the United States and the world are watching the new administration take shape. As the administration staffs up and begins the nomination process for key positions, government affairs professionals must strategize and make sure they are ready for 2025 and the changes it will bring.

Understanding the New Trade Agenda: Key Players and Priorities

International trade and commerce policy are at the forefront of preparations for former President Donald Trump's upcoming second term. Global trade is broad enough to encompass many interconnected hot-button policy issues related to the umbrella category, including foreign policy, immigration, and even taxation. International trade represents an impactful policy area that can show how government affairs and advocacy professionals should strategize to prepare their organizations for the incoming administration.

The new administration aims to represent a drastic shift in focus, priorities, and style from the Biden Administration. If the rhetoric from the campaign trail indicates what is to come, everyone can agree that change is coming regarding international trade. 

What does this change look like regarding implementation, reaction by vested parties, and the ripple effect in other policy areas? K Street desperately seeks answers during this transition because of the potential change and promises made by Trump to the American people.

Trump's brand of populism will ultimately impact policy decisions and a drive to provide the United States with a competitive advantage on the international stage, even if it means ruffling some feathers of traditional allies. This was not a status quo election, and we cannot expect a status quo start to the 47th presidency.

Many of the most dramatic, lasting policy changes will require executive action and the follow-through from Congress with legislative action. Trump may have a definitive electoral mandate, but Congress and the Courts could foil the expediency and outcome of possible change. The razor-thin House majority and a Senate unafraid to buck the executive isn’t the best recipe for transformational change, and the administration may have to settle for systematic gradual change in international trade because of its coordinated branches of government and internal division among policy advisors.

Strategic Adaptations: How Government Affairs Professionals Can Prepare

Government affairs and advocacy professionals are working through a list of questions and formulating briefs, analyses, contingency plans, and a fair amount of conjecture for their clients domestically and internationally. 

Questions for Crafting Your First 100 Days Strategy

Here are some of the key questions related to the election's impact on international trade that government affairs professionals may want to address in their standard “first 100 days” outlines:

• Who are the key people who will develop the policy behind the president’s goals?
• What are the president’s top priorities, and how many campaign ideas are developed into policy changes? 
• What does the new policy timeline look like for implementation?
• How much policy change will Congress support, or will they delay or hinder the president’s objectives? Will advocacy groups opposed to the president’s agenda be able to mount successful legal challenges? Will governors in blue states be able to obstruct the new administration's agenda?
• What countries, industries, and goods are going to face new tariffs? Will there be exemptions? How will this affect the price of goods and services in the United States?
• How will the president engage in new trade agreements and explore existing ones? 
• How do the new immigration plans affect the domestic labor market and production? 
• How will DOGE and other internal administrative state reorganization efforts affect policy areas where there is a crossover, i.e., will a reduced federal workforce be able to implement desired international trade outcomes?
• How will global conflicts be addressed to spur international trade and commerce in areas ravaged by war?
• Will the administration be able to unleash domestic energy and manufacturing to create new opportunities for the United States to gain trading partners, allies, and markets?

This is certainly not an exhaustive list, but it is a starting point for government affairs professionals to consider in the infancy of the second Trump administration, given its stance on key issues related to international trade. 

There are multiple ways to answer these questions, and at present, little is known about the correct answers because the transition has been rooted more in Florida than in Washington, D.C., which is a break from the norm. The transition team has taken steps to distance itself from inside the beltway, and only a very close circle of loyal people are privy to the playbook and have direct access to the key players. However, more details, data, and information become public daily, and ideas and anecdotes are transformed into actual policies with real people working on them.

Best Practices for Staying Informed and Engaged

During this transition period, it is essential to monitor onboarding personnel and key appointments, official statements, key stakeholder reactions, formation of policy coalitions for and against the president’s agenda, and the intersection between domestic and international policy. 

Media monitoring and tracking services can help reduce information overload and ensure your organization is on top of the pressing issues it cares most about. Additionally, government affairs professionals should engage with trade associations, similar sectors, and economists to analyze possible outcomes through scenario planning.

These best practices are essential for all government affairs professionals but even more critical in international trade because of the anticipated changes and the gravity of these changes to the many vested parties. Any new administration brings opportunities and challenges; calculated preparation determines whether you’re at the table or on the menu.