Bill Forecasts in PolicyNote: A Faster Way to Assess Legislative Risk

When you’re managing dozens (or even hundreds) of bills across jurisdictions, it’s not enough to simply track legislation. You need to know what’s likely to happen next.

Bill forecasts, now in PolicyNote, are designed to help government affairs professionals immediately understand the likelihood of a bill reaching a floor vote and passing in each chamber, providing clarity to act strategically and allocate resources more effectively.

This feature brings contextual insights directly into your workflow, with forecasts updating to reflect real-time movement across the legislative process.

For every bill in PolicyNote, you'll see two key predictions per chamber:

• Pre-Floor Score: The likelihood the bill will advance to the floor
• Floor Score: The likelihood it will pass once it reaches the floor

If a bill has already passed one chamber, the forecast will update to reflect this outcome, allowing you to quickly scan where a bill stands. You can also view prior scores for historical context.

How We Create Bill Forecasts 

Bill forecasts are driven by data models built on years of legislative behavior, tuned to each state and chamber. 

PolicyNote uses the most reliable data sources, including official legislative texts, amendments, summaries, lawmaker activity (such as sponsorship, committee involvement, and voting records), and broader context (including demographics, issue sentiment, and third-party policy ratings). This information serves as the foundation for our forecasts.

For pre-floor bills, predictions are based on sponsorship, timing, and committee factors. Bills on the floor are forecasted by historical voting behavior and legislator relationships. Each model is trained on historical data to identify patterns in the types of bills that passed or stalled under similar circumstances.

What Affects the Forecast

Some factors have a stronger influence than others. Based on our research, these tend to have the biggest impact:

• Party in power: Bills backed by the majority party have a significantly higher chance of moving
• Geography: The regional relevance of a bill can affect its progress
• Timing: Long committee delays or late introductions can lower success rates
• Co-sponsorship: Bipartisan support or a high number of same-party co-sponsors can boost chances 

Forecasts Evolve with the Process

Legislation doesn’t stand still, and neither do our forecasts. Forecasts are automatically updated as bills progress through the process. Even if a bill seems stuck, the passage of time alone can affect its forecast score, so it pays to monitor updates regularly.

Monitor Legislation More Effectively With PolicyNote

Bill forecasts in PolicyNote empower you to stop guessing and start prioritizing. Whether you're planning engagement, allocating resources, or preparing internal updates, our forecast models help you make smarter, more confident decisions.

Want to see how forecasts could work in your issue areas? Request a demo to learn more.