2024 Fall Policy Landscape: Key Issues to Monitor Around the World

Critical Swing States in the US Election

The upcoming U.S. election is poised to be a nail-biter. “Right now, polls have the race as being very close and it seems like the only certainty in this election is that it will be close and that it is highly unlikely that the winner will be decided on election night,” said Eric Seipp, consultant, FiscalNote Professional Services. “There's special emphasis placed on Pennsylvania and you can see this in the ad campaign spending, as both the Harris campaign and the Trump campaign are spending around $50 million on Pennsylvania, which is way more than any of the other swing states.”

The race is extremely close, and the emphasis on swing states like Pennsylvania, Georgia, and North Carolina cannot be overstated. The role of mail-in ballots, which carried Democrats in the past, is also a critical factor to watch, given the decrease in requests for mail-in ballots this year.

Latin America’s Political Shifts and Implications

The recent election results in Mexico combined with party defections gave the government a supermajority, enabling significant reforms such as the judicial one. These reforms could impact foreign investments and trade agreements, especially with the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA).

The local elections in Brazil are a barometer for the federal government’s political capital, explained Lucas Machado, global policy advisor at FiscalNote Professional Services. “The elections in Brazil mean more than 5,000 cities are having elections at the same time, and some of them with incredible importance, for the GDP not only of the country but all of South America,” Machado said. The results will indicate the political power and influence of the current administration. Cities like São Paulo, with their significant economic impact, are particularly important. The political climate in Brazil is deeply polarized, and these elections will reflect federal-level politics.

EU’s Political Landscape and Trade Policies

The recent EU elections have strengthened right-wing voices, potentially shifting policy focus. France’s political turbulence and Germany’s migration pressures are reshaping the EU’s internal dynamics.

“A few days ago Germany had elections in a key state, where Olaf Scholz managed to win and retain his power. But at the same time we see that pressures on migration are actually increasing the power of AfD and its political strength, which, even though it lost the elections, it's questioning whether Olaf Scholz’s government will be able to last a long time,” said Michaela Karamperi, global policy specialist at FiscalNote Professional Services.

Trade tensions between the EU and China, particularly over electric vehicles, highlight the need for strategic alliances and diversified trade partnerships.

The EU is also grappling with balancing tough environmental conditions with new trade deals. The Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and other non-tariff barriers are creating challenges but also opportunities for cleaner and more sustainable trade practices.

India Returns to Coalition Politics

The recent general elections in India concluded with unexpectedly close results. The Modi government came into power for a historic third term; however, they did so with diminished parliamentary power and had to form an alliance with regional parties. A coalition government will have an undeniable impact on the Bharatiya Janata Party's (BJP) policymaking, particularly on domestic policy priorities. Economic policies are unlikely to change, as the government is expected to continue promoting ease-of-doing-business measures and strengthening the domestic manufacturing base, said Simantini Ray, FiscalNote Professional Services research analyst. However, the BJP government’s more controversial proposals, particularly bills on digital regulation, are likely to be reassessed and even kept on the back burner until more political stability is achieved.

AI Policy Developments Across the US and Latin America

United States

The U.S. is in a knowledge-building phase regarding AI policy, focusing on combating deepfakes and developing comprehensive legislative frameworks. While Colorado’s AI legislation could serve as a model for other states, federal action remains uncertain.

“In terms of any comprehensive AI framework, I am doubtful there will be any kind of legislation passed, especially if this coming election results in a split Congress,” Seipp said. “There are too many differences in terms of how to define AI, what specifically to cover, as well as a lot of lobbying interests that can heavily impact federal legislation.”

Meanwhile, Colorado legislation covers a broad range of industries, from education to healthcare, finance, insurance, and human resources. The emphasis on AI policy is to ensure that it does not undermine American workers and maintains competitiveness in cutting-edge technologies.

Latin America

Brazil and Colombia are proactively developing AI policies, focusing on data centers and clean energy integration. Brazil is particularly keen on leveraging its renewable energy matrix to support AI development, promoting the concept of “power shoring” to attract data centers and reduce the carbon footprint of AI operations.

Hydrogen and Clean Energy Initiatives

Latin America

The continent is positioning itself as a key player in the hydrogen market, leveraging its renewable energy resources. Brazil’s new framework law on hydrogen and the swift approval of tax incentives indicate a strong commitment to becoming a major exporter of green hydrogen.

Asia

Japan is also focusing on hydrogen and carbon capture as part of its green transition policy, aiming for carbon neutrality by 2050. However, there’s opposition regarding the environmental oversight of these projects, which needs to be addressed to ensure sustainable development.

“There have been critiques by environmental advocates, as the policy continues to be within the realm of the Trade and Economy ministry rather than the environmental ministry, which means that the projects won't have a lot of environmental oversight or environmental impact assessments,” said Ray.

Monitor Global Policy With FiscalNote

Staying on top of global policy developments is essential for government affairs teams. The global political landscape is always in flux, especially during years with pivotal elections around the world, and understanding the implications of these changes is crucial for navigating public policy, regulation, and political obstacles. With FiscalNote, teams can gain actionable intelligence on how to navigate complex policy environments and stay ahead of potential challenges. FiscalNote Professional Services provides insights with our award-winning policy analysis delivered right to your inbox.