Understanding COP30

by Karen Espinola Gutiérrez, Global Policy Specialist, FiscalNote and Kauan Cangussu, Global Policy Specialist, FiscalNote

What is COP30?

Nearly 200 countries will gather in Belém, Brazil, from 10 to 21 November 2025, for the COP30, the 30th session of the Conference of the Parties (COP) under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The COP is the annual decision-making summit under the UNFCCC, the global treaty adopted at the 1992 Rio Earth Summit. It has 198 Parties, 197 countries and the European Union. They meet to assess progress, negotiate commitments, and decide how to translate them into action. COP30 also serves as a meeting of Parties to the Kyoto Protocol and the Paris Agreement.

From Paris to Belém: A Decade of Commitments

Adopted in 2015, the Paris Agreement set the goal of keeping global warming 'well below 2°C' and preferably under 1.5°C, compared to pre-industrial levels. It requires countries to submit and update their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) every five years, a 10-year plan outlining how they will cut emissions and adapt to climate change. The year 2025 marks the first full review cycle since Paris, yet most countries missed the February deadline to submit their updated NDCs. Over 70 countries have updated their NDCs, but major emitters, including the European Union, are lagging behind. Besides, NDCs vary across the board, with some countries submitting less ambitious targets, rendering it difficult to decrease emissions at the required level. It is important to note that while NDCs are not legally binding, they signal future policy, investment, and regulatory directions. 

COP30 in Belém is not expected to introduce new international commitments but to accelerate the implementation of those agreed in previous conferences. As host and president, Brazil has prioritised broad engagement with member states, the private sector, and civil society to develop actionable pathways for financing and delivering existing climate targets. This focus is reflected in the conference’s distinctive 'circles' format and its key anticipated outcomes.

A New Format: Brazil’s ‘Four Circles’ Approach 

Brazil’s presidency is reshaping the COP structure into ‘four interconnected circles': the Circle of Presidents, the Circle of Finance Ministers, the People’s Circle, and the Global Ethical Stocktake. Unlike previous formats, these parallel forums operate alongside the official negotiations to drive implementation and sustain long-term engagement on delivering tangible results throughout the conference. 

Central to this approach is the Circle of Finance Ministers, which plays a pivotal role in advancing this year’s core objectives. Through this platform, Brazil seeks to strengthen coordination among financial authorities to scale up climate finance, recognising finance ministers as key actors in aligning national budgets with global climate goals. COP’s president frames this as a movement to integrate ecological concerns across national budgets, from mobility to agriculture and energy.

The Core Deliverables:

1. Baku–Belém Roadmap

Presidents of COP29 and COP30 released on 5 November 2025 the Baku–Belém Roadmap, the summit’s headline initiative. It aims to outline solutions for mobilising USD 1.3 trillion in annual climate finance, building on the USD 300 billion goal established at COP29. According to the Roadmap, half of the total amount will rely on private finance, while the rest will come from bilateral concessional finance, multilateral development banks and climate funds, new low-cost sources, carbon markets,  debt swaps, and other financial mechanisms. 

The report will now be considered by member states during COP30 negotiations. Although it remains uncertain whether it will be reflected in any binding commitment, its proposals will influence business by shaping financial and economic measures adopted by governments and financial institutions worldwide.

2. The Tropical Forests Forever Facility (TFFF)

Brazil’s flagship proposal, the Tropical Forests Forever Facility (TFFF), aims to raise USD 125 billion in total capital to reward forest conservation through a long-term, results-based model. Companies and financial institutions are expected to be the main providers of the capital, which is expected to make around USD 3 billion per year in returns when fully capitalised. Through the returns, countries that preserve their forests would receive annual payments of USD 4 per hectare, while deductions would apply for deforestation or degradation. 

The TFFF will likely be managed through the World Bank and composed of two parts: the Tropical Forest Investment Fund (TFIF), which mobilises capital through low-risk financial instruments, and the Facility itself, directing payments to eligible countries. At least 20% of the funds are expected to go to Indigenous and local communities, a landmark move linking conservation finance to social justice. For the private sector, the TFFF mechanism breaks up with past frameworks where climate financing was a ‘charity’, to offer solutions for scalable, transparent, and profitable climate investment.

The Political Landscape

Geopolitics will shape the tone of COP30. The United States (US) faces renewed scrutiny after dismantling its climate diplomacy office and amid doubts over its participation. Meanwhile, the European Union and China have pledged to submit updated 2035 targets and enhance cooperation on renewables, carbon markets, and methane reduction, seeking to lead the global climate agenda. The leadership vacuum left by the US creates both a challenge and an opportunity. EU and China will remain focused on staying competitive with the US, aware that the costs of transitioning to a low-carbon economy are high. At the same time, this shift allows them an opportunity to lead the green economy and fill the gap left by the US.

As host, Brazil aims to bridge the North–South divide, positioning itself as a mediator linking finance, forests, and fairness. During the pre-COP, Brazil, Italy, and Japan, supported by India, launched the ‘Belém 4x Pledge on Sustainable Fuels’ to expand global use of sustainable fuels fourfold by 2035. Yet, on 20th October 2025, the Brazilian environmental agency’s (Ibama) approval of Petrobras’ drilling in Block 59 at the Mouth of the Amazon sparked criticism from civil society and Indigenous groups, who plan to challenge the license in court.

Domestically, Brazil’s climate credibility is under strain after Congress approved the Environmental Licensing Law in early August 2025, criticised for weakening oversight of high-impact projects and limiting Indigenous consultation. President Lula vetoed its most controversial provisions and postponed a congressional vote until after the COP30. The Congress, dominated by agribusiness interests, often clashes with environmental NGOs and Indigenous groups over land and conservation policies. The government, a broad coalition spanning centre-right to left-wing parties, continues to seek balance through compromise.

Although no major shift in Brazilian environmental policy is expected, shortly before COP30, its president, André Aranha Corrêa do Lago, expressed optimism about the conference’s ability to advance decarbonisation initiatives. COP's organisation coordinated input from economic sectors, universities, and civil society, which is expected to reinforce domestic incentives for sustainable agriculture, biofuels, and clean infrastructure.