With many moving parts and players, shaping the nation’s budget almost never adheres to its official timeline. The process was designed to accommodate complex negotiations among federal agencies, the White House’s Office of Management and Budget, and Congress.

But while running behind schedule is expected, running off the rails is not. The government is currently operating under a continuing resolution (CR) due to an incomplete fiscal 2025 budget, and prospects are dim for reaching a deal for fiscal 2026 in the foreseeable future. That was the consensus among three expert panelists at FiscalNote’s March 26, 2025, webinar, “The Federal Budget: Timelines, Hurdles, & Potential Impacts for Your Organization.”

“When lawmakers get along, they can get stuff done. When politics interfere, they can’t—and there’s endless delays and endless fights. That’s what I fear we’re going to be facing this year,” said panel moderator David Lerman, a senior writer at CQ and Roll Call. “The politics are poisonous and not very promising here for any kind of timely action.”

Where Do We Stand?

Federal law sets a timeline for the president to release a draft budget for each fiscal year by the first Monday in February. Since that deadline is rarely met, its absence at this stage is not, in itself, noteworthy. It’s the broader context — of continual delays, bitter fighting between and within parties, and rancor over firings and funding freezes during the first days of the second Trump administration — that has experts worried.

“It is impossible to be optimistic about a top-line deal for next year in light of what we saw happen at the end of this year,” said Aidan Quigley, CQ and Roll Call’s Budget & Appropriations reporter. “I’m not expecting to see the President’s budget until May, potentially even June,” he added.  

For their part, Democrats are eager to use spending bills to push back against the administration’s large-scale cuts to federal entities. “They’re going to want safeguards in these bills so that [Trump] … can’t just gut agencies on his own,” Lerman said. But Republicans’ rationale is: “We’re not going to tell a fellow Republican president what he can’t do, and we’re certainly not going to write it into an Appropriations bill,” Lerman explained.

Indeed, polarized politics is the reason Congress couldn’t reach a deal last year. “We didn’t have a final appropriations package for the current fiscal year because there was no agreement on that,” said Lerman. “And we’re left with this full-year continuing resolution just to extend current funding for all agencies. That’s the first time in my memory that’s been for a full year. That really says something.”

Quigley agreed: “With Republicans controlling both chambers and Democrats having no desire for spending cuts that Republicans want, it’s going to be a really tough year.”

Can Republicans Align on Debt Limit?

As Caitlin Reilly, CQ and Roll Call’s tax and economic policy staff writer, pointed out, conflicts proliferate within party lines as well. “My focus has been on internal divisions and efforts to overcome them within the Republican party,” she said, noting that a chief disagreement surrounds how much federal spending can, and should, be cut.

The Congressional Budget Office projects that Congress has until August or September of this year to borrow money before breaching the current debt limit of $36 trillion. To fund the administration’s plans to bolster defense and border security, House Republicans have set the stage to raise that limit by $4 trillion.

“Initially, there was harder pushback among Senate Republicans,” Reilly said, “but we’ve seen them start to warm up to that majority.”

The Senate is looking at the week of April 7 to put forward a compromise budget resolution, Reilly said. But much work remains to be done to reach an agreement that can get majority votes in both chambers of Congress, she added.

What Happens to Earmarks?

In a typical budget cycle, policy professionals often push to fund their own projects through the earmarking process. But in fiscal 2025, all earmarks got wiped out with the CR, leaving many to wonder if they could be brought back for fiscal 2026.

Once again, the panel was not optimistic. “I wouldn’t plan on receiving earmarked funding,” Quigley said. Despite the popularity of earmarks among both chambers and political parties, reintroducing them is easier said than done, he noted.  

Who Pays for Tax Cuts?

With many of the Trump administration’s 2017 tax cuts set to expire at the end of this year, the president and Senate Republicans are pushing to extend them permanently — which raises the question of who will pay for them.    

Their surprising answer is: no one. As the panel explained, the Senate contends that the cuts can be “cost-free,” given that they’re a continuation of current policy. “It’s very wonky talk,” said Lerman, “but basically they’re saying we don’t need to worry about how much they cost, because we can pretend there’s no cost, because we’re just extending tax cuts that already exist.” While fiscally conservative Republicans, including many in the House, are also committed to extending the cuts, they want to find another way to fund them.

The Senate’s parliamentarian is expected to weigh in soon with a ruling on whether the cost-free accounting tactic is viable, Reilly said.

The Core Issue

Another source of contention: The Trump administration is declining to spend $3 billion that Congress provided as part of the fiscal 2025 CR, saying the money was improperly designated as emergency funds.

“The Democrats are saying, and the law says, that you either have to declare all of [the $12 million designated] as emergency or none of it,” said Quigley. “You can’t just pick $3 billion that you don’t like and toss it.”

It’s a striking example of how far current reality has strayed from past precedent. The panel anticipated legal challenges that will drag on for years in court, all aimed at the same central question: “Does the administration have final spending authority, or is it actually in the hands of Congress?” Quigley asked.